NHLs Top 30 over 30: Counting down the leagues best old guys

Publish date: 2024-06-22

It’s a young man’s league.

Is it an NHL cliche on par with “get pucks deep?” Of course not. Nothing can be. But we hear it a lot, and we hear it for a reason: It’s true.

It’s mainly true, at least. The game, by and large, belongs to 24-year-olds. Everything we know about aging curves and statistical primes suggests as much. Still, there’s a lot of good to be found in the games of the ancients who’ve walked with us since time immemorial. The grand old men of hockey. The guys who were born in … 1990. 1987. My goodness, 1983.

They deserve respect. They deserve tribute. These are the 30 best players older than 30 (on opening night).

The list was assembled based on a simple prompt: Who would you rather have for the 2021-22 season? Before we open the box, it’s worth noting that last season, 55 players who were 30 years old by Jan. 31 scored at least .5 points per game. Of the 913 skaters that took a shift, 196 fit the bill. There might be more good ✌️old✌️ guys than you think. These are the best of the best.

BONUS: Jonathan Toews, Blackhawks C

Age: 33
Contract: Two remaining years, $10.5 million AAV

The fact that we can even consider Toews for this a treat. You know the story by now; he sat out last season with what his doctors found to be Chronic Immune Response Syndrome, triggered by nagging health issues and COVID-19. It left him physically and emotionally spent. Now he’s back, a mix of himself and a work in progress. The difference between his public perception and his on-ice production has always been fascinating. Where that goes this season is anyone’s guess — but I’d rather bet on him than against him.

This season’s concern: Should be clear.

GSVA projection: 1.88

30. Mattias Ekholm, Predators D

Age: 31
Contract: One remaining year, $3.75 million AAV

One of last season’s trade-deadline surprises was that the Preds hung on to Ekholm, a rock-solid two-way defenseman on an outstanding contract. The demand was high, and the Preds — early on, at least — were awful. Nothing happened, and now Ekholm could wind up with Nashville long term. He’s ridden shotgun for much of his career between Roman Josi, Shea Weber, P.K. Subban and Ryan Ellis, but his size, consistency and durability make him a good bet for this season and a while longer. Just don’t expect him to come cheap.

This season’s concern: A new partner (Phillippe Myers), plus a possible PDO regression; Ekholm was on the ice for a disproportionate percentage of goals, especially in the second half of the season.

GSVA projection: 1.43

29. Ryan McDonagh, Lightning D

Age: 32
Contract: Five remaining years, $6.75 million AAV

McDonagh has had a quietly fascinating career. He was almost too good too early with the Rangers; it felt like a Norris Trophy was a matter of when, not if. That didn’t quite happen, and there was a bit of a downturn after the Rangers sent him to Tampa. The last two years, though, have been proof that he didn’t peak too early. McDonagh and Erik Cernak have been the match-up pair on two consecutive Stanley Cup champions. That’s part of the fun of watching careers unfold; McDonagh isn’t a prodigy anymore — just an invaluable piece of a potential dynasty.

This season’s concern: McDonagh has already bounced back once from what felt like the beginning of the end, and he’s coming off two long postseasons. Plus, we’ll assume he has the Olympics to worry about.

GSVA projection: 1.24

28. Torey Krug, Blues D

Age: 30
Contract: Six remaining years, $6.5 million AAV

The first year in St. Louis didn’t quite go according to plan for Krug — but it was unfair (and unwise) to treat him as an Alex Pietrangelo replacement in the first place. We’ll talk about that more later. Krug, on the other hand, is what he is; a terrific power-play presence who, partially due to his size, needs to be quasi-sheltered in his minutes. There are no Zdeno Chara bailouts in St. Louis. Still, a full year in his new system, plus the value he’s always going to bring to the man advantage, make him a risk worth taking. For now.

This season’s concern: That we learn once and for all that Krug, at least in part, was a creation of the role he played in Boston — even with adjusted expectations.

GSVA projection: 1.79

27. Evgeni Malkin, Penguins C

Age: 35
Contract: One remaining year, $9.5 million AAV

Putting Malkin in this list at all — remember, we’re only talking about this season — is a leap of faith. It’s not because of Malkin’s brutal start in 2020-21, either; that was more a function of the pandemic offseason than the aging curve. It’s because of his knee injury. Damage to multiple ligaments at 35 is no joke, and the best-case scenario involves him missing “at least” two months. The worst case is … well, worse, and it changes the calculus considerably. How he looks when he returns is a very open (and very fair) question.

This season’s concern: That he returns sometime around the holidays, needs considerable time to get back into game shape, gets waylaid by the Olympic break and never looks like himself.

GSVA projection: 2.24

26. Blake Wheeler, Jets RW

Age: 35
Contract: Three remaining years, $8.25 million AAV

One of the overriding theories here is that last season was, in a word, fake. There’s no asterisk on the Lightning’s Cup win, and we all had an OK time. But we should all do our best to remember that the circumstances were bizarre and unrepeatable. In Wheeler’s case, a decent chunk of it seemed normal; 44 points in 50 games? Check. And that all came despite an early-season rib injury. He’s the captain of a playoff-caliber team who, offensively, still looks like himself. That counts for a lot.

This season’s concern: That his catastrophic defensive numbers — no forward in the league was on the ice for more chances against — represents something more than a blip on the radar. A player simply can’t get beaten as badly as Wheeler did, both in actual and expected goals, and stay on goofy lists like this.

GSVA projection: 1.1

25. Anders Lee, Islanders F

Age: 31
Contract: Five remaining years, $7 million AAV

Were the Islanders able to keep the wagon rolling after Lee tore his ACL in March? Yes. Was that more of a surprise than it should’ve been? Also, yes. That doesn’t change that Lee is the Islanders’ best forward not named Mathew Barzal. The two work perfectly together; lots of chances, lots of goals. If Lee is healthy — and if Kyle Palmieri meshes as their new partner — look out. The pieces are going to be in place.

This season’s concern: The knee injury, mainly. Possibly swapping out Jordan Eberle for Palmieri.

GSVA projection: 2.15

24. Anze Kopitar, Kings C

Age: 34
Contract: Three remaining years, $10 million AAV

We could be in for a fascinating season from Kopitar. There are reasons for his concern; his expected goals numbers have been rough for a few years; twilight has arrived, in some respects. Still, he’s productive (50 points in 56 games) and outstanding defensively. In other words, he’s Anze Kopitar. And now, he’s got depth behind him — Phillip Danault eating some of those tough minutes is a godsend — and a new toy on his line in Viktor Arvidsson. Throw in Quinton Byfield, and the Kings have the right group in place to support their guy.

This season’s concern: That his offensive production stops outpacing his underlying numbers.

GSVA projection: 1.83

23. Claude Giroux, Flyers RW

Age: 33
Contract: One remaining year, $8.275 AAV

Giroux’s shift to wing a few years back has led to him, as Charlie O’Connor put it, “aging gracefully.” Is he capable of carrying the Flyers like he did at 26? No. Last season’s standings hammer that point home. His days as a 90-point guy are almost certainly in the past. Either way, he still scores enough and drives possession at an elite rate, based in large part on really solid defensive numbers. His adaptation has been fun to watch, and there’s no reason to think it won’t continue.

This season’s concern: That the point production continues to dip and leaves him as a true third-liner, and that Giroux gets scapegoated for the Flyers’ issues, uh, elsewhere.

GSVA projection: 2.17

22. Jeff Petry, Canadiens D

Age: 33
Contract: Four remaining years, $6.25 million AAV

At some point, Petry’s year-over-year improvements are going to stop. He’ll just have to settle for “top-pair, elite offense-driving defenseman.” Poor guy. We’re driving the bus for him to get a spot on the U.S. Olympic team. It’s wild to think that a 63-point-pace defenseman on a Cup Final team from Montreal could be underrated, but here we are.

This season’s concern: That he’ll struggle with more on his plate in Shea Weber’s absence. Early signs are that he’ll stick on a pair with Joel Edmunson, though, which should help.

GSVA projection: 2.26

21. Nicklas Backstrom, Capitals C

Age: 33
Contract: Four remaining years, $9.2 million AAV

Backstrom has a high-profile linemate chasing a high-profile record, and he — as ever — is playing a major part. Backstrom was again a point-per-game player for the Caps. Beyond that, his Goals Above Replacement (both expected and actual) were as good as they’ve been in years. It’s easier to forget about him than it should be, but the Caps are still able to mark him down as a first-line center, even in his 15th year.

This season’s concern: That his recovery from hip surgery doesn’t go according to plan, and that the Caps’ issues behind him leave him with too much work.

GSVA projection: 2.20

20. Joe Pavelski, Stars F

Age: 37
Contract: One remaining year, $7 million AAV

There’s isn’t much that’s more fun than watching an ol’ war horse like Pavelski feed off the energy of some younger linemates, and that’s what came to pass in Dallas last season. Pavelski, Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson meshed in a big way; Hintz scored at an 86-point pace, Robertson seemingly came out of nowhere and Pavelski went off for 51 points in 56 games to go with fantastic defensive impacts. Old as he is — how is Joe Pavelski 37? — more could be in store, especially since Hintz got his long-awaited groin surgery.

This season’s concern: Hintz comes back to Earth, in terms of shooting percentage; the league gets a better book on Robertson; and Pavelski plays as you’d expect a forward born in 1984 to play.

GSVA projection: 2.33

19. Ryan O’Reilly, Blues C

Age: 30
Contract: Two remaining years, $7.5 million AAV

This may well be low for O’Reilly, but it’s more a function of the players in front of him. He was nearly a point-per-game player last season, and his (typically outstanding) defensive numbers were blunted by the Blues’ brutal goaltending. Given that he just turned 30, it’s tough to find anyone in the group with more upside. This could easily look stupid, but ultimately his placement feels right.

This season’s concern: That O’Reilly’s shooting percentage drops from 18.6 (it almost certainly will), that linemate David Perron returns to his past production levels and that O’Reilly’s decline in underlying numbers repeats itself.

GSVA projection: 2.59

18. Kris Letang, Penguins D

Age: 34
Contract: One remaining year, $7.25 million AAV

Letang is who is he has been: An elite, high-event offensive defenseman whose defensive play — while not great — is better than many seem to think. His skating is still there, as is his importance to driving play with the Penguins’ top line. Pittsburgh needs him to be in top form, especially early, given injuries to Malkin and Sidney Crosby. It’s been a while since Letang hasn’t had at least one of those two in the lineup alongside himself.

This season’s concern: That the aging curve takes Letang’s defensive impacts from adequate to problematic.

GSVA projection: 2.12

17. Steven Stamkos, Lightning F

Age: 31
Contract: Three remaining years, $8.5 million AAV

We’ll start with the optimist’s take on Stamkos; he didn’t have offseason surgery, and the last time we saw him, he was in the midst of an 18-point playoff run. He’s still got one of the best shots in the league. Dom’s GSVA model is high on him. The Lightning clearly know how to put him in a position to succeed. If he has a replay of last season’s production and doesn’t have to deal with another core injury, everyone in Tampa will be happy.

This season’s concern: That a set of nagging suspicions from last year — that injuries are catching up to him, that he’s not a front-seat driver for the Lightning’s success, and that he’s nearing “power-play specialist” territory — continue to pick up steam. That’d push him down the list.

GSVA projection: 3.15

16. Alex Ovechkin, Capitals LW

Age: 36
Contract: Five remaining years, $9.5 million AAV

Ovechkin’s Wayne Gretzky chase is reason enough to put him on this list. It’s going to be must-see TV for, apparently, the next five years. Throw in the fact that he’s still quite good, and he lands right in the middle of our list. The signs of aging are present — he’s not going to help on breakouts all that much, and he’s more of a “find his spot” guy than ever — but he’s still great at the things that make him great.

This season’s concern: Backstrom starting the season at less than 100 percent won’t help. Much of an offensive force as he is, that production is necessary to counteract major defensive issues. It’s not a small ask.

GSVA projection: 2.45

15. John Tavares, Maple Leafs C

Age: 31
Contract: Four remaining years, $11 million AAV

What can you say about the Maple Leafs that hasn’t been already, or 30 seconds from now, or tomorrow, or in 100 years? Their season ended terribly, partially because Tavares’ season ended terribly. For what it’s worth, it had been an odd, backloaded one for him by that point. If he picks up where he left off — producing points while taking on more of a defensive role — everything will be fine. It’s certainly what his team needs.

This season’s concern: As Tavares ages, more attention will be paid to his skating. Also, Michael Bunting as the third man with him and William Nylander could be a real grab bag.

GSVA projection: 2.97

14. Max Pacioretty, Golden Knights LW

Age: 32
Contract: Two remaining years, $7 million AAV

Pacioretty’s production makes it easy to argue for him to be higher; last season, he worked at a 41-goal, 87-point pace. He hasn’t just been as advertised since arriving in Vegas two seasons ago; he’s been better. Certainly better than the tail end of his time with the Canadiens. The Golden Knights wanted star power, and they got it. It also seems sustainable; Pacioretty isn’t riding a shooting percentage spike. His line is just controlling play.

This season’s concern: If there’s a reason to ding Pacioretty, it’s probably unfair; Mark Stone is the straw that stirs the drink on that line. Still, how Pacioretty would work away from him is anyone’s guess.

GSVA projection: 3.03

13. Carey Price, Canadiens G

Age: 34
Contract: Five remaining years, $10.5 million

In his last four seasons, Carey Price has had a save percentage above .909 exactly once. There are plenty of reasons not to take him — there are more reasons to leave him off this list than on, if we’re keeping it a buck. But also, we all watched the playoffs. Until he starts going in the tank in the spring, he’s going to be an irresistible pick.

This season’s concern: That he, and his team, aren’t good enough to make the playoffs.

12. Robin Lehner, Golden Knights G

Age: 30
Contract: Four remaining years, $5 million AAV

A bit too lost in the Golden Knights’ season-and-a-half of goalie drama: Lehner is good. That’s why Vegas got themselves in trouble in the first place. If Lehner stunk, the last couple years would’ve been a lot more boring. Last time he got a net to himself, he put up a .930 save percentage, and Vegas is nearly as capable of supporting him defensively as the Islanders.

This season’s concern: The Fleury merry-go-round is over, but the safety net is gone, as well. Having Laurent Brossoit as the backup is a little different.

11. John Carlson, Capitals D

Age: 31
Contract: Five remaining years, $8 million AAV

Down the stretch of last season: “Hmm, what’s wrong with John Carlson?” At the start of training camp: “Ah, he was playing on a fractured kneecap. That’ll do it.” Carlson’s point total dropped from 60 to 44 last season, which wasn’t unexpected, and his expected goals was above 50 percent, despite some decidedly whatever defensive impacts. Assuming the kneecap is unbroken, this feels about right.

This season’s concern: The Capitals ask Carlson to do a whole lot, and it’s easy to imagine that turning into a problem at some point soon.

GSVA projection: 2.69

a class='ath_autolink' href='https://theathletic.com/nhl/player/jared-spurgeon-qv5DB4y0Yk4sdHBU/'Jared Spurgeon/a

Jared Spurgeon. (Claus Andersen / Getty Images)

10. Jared Spurgeon, Wild D

Age: 31
Contract: Six remaining years, $7.575 AAV

If there’s a weak spot in Spurgeon’s game (other than being 5-foot-9), it’s been hidden for years. Possession, point production, great defensive numbers, power-play production — he’s a rock-solid hockey player. Might be worth tracking Ryan Suter’s numbers in Dallas for some extra proof. Smart money would be on them taking a hit with a new partner. Did Dom threaten me into this? No. He bribed me.

This season’s concern: What if he shrinks?

GSVA projection: 2.59

9. Semyon Varlamov, Islanders G

Age: 33
Contract: Two remaining years, $5 million AAV

A Barry Trotz goalie had an outstanding season? No way. Varlamov put up a .929 save percentage, the sixth-best goals saved above expected in the league, led the NHL with seven shutouts and finished fifth in the Vezina voting. Call him a product of the system if you want, but those are good numbers, period.

This season’s concern: Ilya Sorokin isn’t bad himself and could cut into Varlamov’s appearances.

8. Roman Josi, Predators D

Age: 31
Contract: Seven remaining years, $9.059 million AAV

Good luck finding a more complete defenseman tasked with more than Josi. The Preds rely on him for loads for zone entries and exits, and they need him to generate not just shots — but points. It’s a lot to ask, and Josi’s been up to the task for years. The first half of last season was nothing great, but he looked more like his Norris-winning self by the end of it.

This season’s concern: That Josi’s apparent workload issues in the first half weren’t a blip on the radar, and that Nashville doesn’t have a great plan to lighten his lift.

GSVA projection: 2.55

7. Patrick Kane, Blackhawks RW

Age: 32
Contract: Two remaining years, $10.5 million AAV

When Kane was at his ultra-peak, we heard about his play-making skills as something of an afterthought. Last season, they carried him to a 97-point pace that, at one point, singlehandedly had the Blackhawks in the thick of the playoff hunt and himself as a Hart front-runner. Watching him, full time, on a line with Alex DeBrincat and a healthy Kirby Dach is going to be a blast. A wildly productive player, and likely to stay that way for a while longer.

This season’s concern: That Kane’s meh expected goals rate persists, and that his defensive issues are magnified with age.

GSVA projection: 2.63

6. Alex Pietrangelo, Golden Knights D

Age: 31
Contract: Six remaining years, $8.8 million AAV

No player on this list has more of a right to use “last season was fake” than Pietrangelo, who struggled through several injuries and a COVID-19 absence in his first run with the Golden Knights. By the playoffs, he looked like the no-doubt No. 1 he’d been with St. Louis, and the guy Vegas thought they’d signed. In part due to increased comfort in Peter DeBoer’s system, Pietrangelo dialed up his offensive output and emerged as an expected goals/game score beast. Sounds about right. Bet on him to follow that up appropriately.

This season’s concern: Other than another fight with the injury gods? Not a ton.

GSVA projection: 2.06

5. Marc-Andre Fleury, Blackhawks G

Age: 36
Contract: One remaining year, $7 million AAV

The cool part of Fleury’s Vezina run with Vegas — and we don’t need to rehash any of the drama — is that it doubled as a lifetime achievement award and something he earned based on his work last season. You could quibble around the margins and maybe just give it to Andrei Vasilevskiy again — or you could say, “Yep, this guy put up a 19.87 goals saved above expected, which was five better than second place.” He deserves his own net, wherever that may be.

This season’s concern: That the Blackhawks, despite all their shuffling, aren’t a materially better defensive team and Fleury caves in under the workload.

4. Victor Hedman, Lightning D

Age: 30
Contract: Four remaining years, $7.875 million AVV

Ah, yes, another do-everything Norris winner who can rightfully pretend that last season didn’t happen. Starting in April, Hedman’s play visibly tailed off. The stats followed. By the postseason, Hedman looked closer to himself, and we all know what happens next. The reason for the bounce-back? He figured out how to compensate for playing on a torn meniscus. He had offseason surgery, and now he’s back. There’s no reason not to think he’ll be a Norris candidate again — on merit, not reputation.

This season’s concern: Nothing different than most of the Lightning’s roster; they’ve played a lot of hockey over the last couple years, and the offseason was short.

GSVA projection: 2.61

3. Patrice Bergeron, Bruins C

Age: 36
Contract: One remaining year, $6.875 million AAV

We can breeze past the fact that Bergeron’s future, in Boston and overall, is decidedly up in the air after this season, and enjoy the fact that he — of all people — is coming off one of the stronger defensive seasons of his career. Patrice Bergeron. Throw in the fact that he averaged 2.93 points/60 last season, which is elite, and had expected and actual goals rates above 60 percent, which is gross … do you need to be sold on Patrice Bergeron? Nah.

This season’s concern: That Brad Marchand gets hurt.

GSVA projection: 3.70

2. Brad Marchand, Bruins LW

Age: 33
Contract: Four remaining years, $6.125 million AAV

It’s not impossible to imagine Bergeron deciding to hang things up a bit earlier than expected. Marchand said last week he’s going to play until he gets “the boot.” We’ll take him at his word. He’s the rare player to improve in his 30s, almost across the board. At some point, that’ll stop. Not sure it’s just yet, though. Watching him, Bergeron and David Pastrnak play together remains a real treat, especially as it gets harder to figure out which of the three is more indispensable. At this point, it might be Marchand.

This season’s concern: That Patrice Bergeron gets hurt.

GSVA projection: 4.36

1. Sidney Crosby

Age: 34
Contract: Four remaining years, $8.7 million AAV

His projections aren’t quite the strongest, and he’s going to miss time after offseason wrist surgery, but we’re going to rephrase the premise as a question: Which of these players would you rather have for one single year than Sidney Crosby? He’s still, somehow, good at everything — and he gets the crown over both Bruins because they spend every shift with each other. Apologies to Jake Guentzel; he’s not Brad Marchand. Don’t overthink this. If you’re picking one, it should be Crosby.

This season’s concern: The wrist. The no-Malkin workload. And most of all, the age. At some point, someone else will be in this spot. That’s how it works — just not quite yet.

GSVA projection: 3.61

Statistics via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

(Top photo of Brad Marchand and Sidney Crosby: Maddie Meyer / Getty Images)

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